Romney also won consistent support among voters who thought the economy was the most important issue. Forty-four percent of those economy voters backed the businessman and former governor, about twice as many that supported Santorum 23 percent or Gingrich 21 percent. Voters who were most concerned about the federal budget deficit, which will likely be an issue in the fall, also supported Romney by a large margin.
Moreover, Romney was able to win in states important to clinching the nomination based on numbers. He won the states that offered a large chunk of delegates like Ohio, Illinois and Florida; Romney also won all the three primaries that awarded their delegates winner-take-all - Florida, Arizona, and the District of Columbia.
Most states allocated their delegates proportionally this year, but this allowed Romney to net some delegates even in states he did not win. Complete estimated Republican delegate count. Exit polls did expose weaknesses for Romney. He's often been criticized for being out of touch with ordinary Americans, and in eight states where voters were asked which candidate best understood average Americans' problems, Romney was the top choice in just two of those states - Florida and Illinois - states that he won by double digits.
In Ohio, a state Romney won narrowly, as well as a battleground in the general election, only 22 percent of Republican primary voters picked him as the candidate who best understands the problems of average Americans - 12 points behind Santorum 34 percent. Also, many voters questioned Romney's conservative credentials. In states where the question was asked, 49 percent of Republican primary voters said Romney's positions were not conservative enough, while fewer 41 percent described his issue positions as about right.
Voters were more likely to say Santorum's views were about right 51 percent. Very conservative voters were particularly skeptical of Romney's conservatism: seven in 10 of them said Romney's positions were not conservative enough. Six in 10 white evangelicals also held this view. Neither Romney nor Santorum had especially enthusiastic backing from their supporters. Forty-nine percent of Romney's supporters strongly favored their candidate, but many 42 percent had reservations about him.
Santorum supporters held similar opinions of their candidate. National polls showed Democrats were more enthusiastic than Republicans four years ago, and Romney hopes to close this gap heading into November. Interestingly, while they received fewer votes than their rivals during the campaign, supporters of Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were excited about their candidates. Fifty-nine percent of Gingrich supporters strongly favored him, while 52 percent of Paul voters said that about him.
Romney also won among moderates and those who described themselves as somewhat conservative. He won among both men by 12 points and women by 13 points. Romney also did well among older voters, getting 46 percent of the votes of those age 65 and over, with just 22 percent going to Santorum. But Romney faced, and still faces, a challenge winning over evangelical voters and the most conservative voters.
In states where those types of voters were more numerous, Santorum or Gingrich often won. Among voters overall, 36 percent of those who described themselves as very conservative a third of the electorate voted for Rick Santorum while Romney won just 30 percent of their votes. White evangelicals comprised nearly half of primary voters, and 34 percent of them voted for Santorum, with Romney winning 31 percent.
But many state parties have established rules that get far away from the goal of a fair reflection of voter intent. Some states like Oklahoma and Mississippi have rules that truly achieve proportional representation, but others like Florida and Arizona have flagrantly violated the rule and allocated all delegates to their statewide winner- inviting a challenge to those delegates at the Republican convention this summer. In many other states, quirks in their rules, along with a very loose definition of what defines "proportionality," have led to extreme deviations from proportional representation.
Contrary to what many analysts are saying, the actual delegate count for Romney to date is far closer to what it would have been if winner-take-all rules had been used rather than a fully proportional system. If vote tallies had stayed the same, the biggest beneficiary of going to winner-take-all rules would have been Rick Santorum. Currently, his He still wouldn't have won the nomination if states had used winner-take-all rules.
Reviewing the numbers also shows the difference between contests in low-turnout caucuses and higher-turnout primaries. Ron Paul's share of delegates would have had the biggest increase with proportional allocation of delegates, earning nearly as many as Newt Gingrich's share despite Gingrich having Paul would have been benefited by his relative strength in low-turnout caucus states.
Looking to the future, FairVote has proposed in recent commentaries that parties move to a system where states hold their contests to winnow the field to the top three candidates, and those candidates run in a national primary to select a winner using instant runoff voting. The latest numbers and recent polls of Republican voters underscore the value of this proposal.
First, unlike political insiders, Republican voters are not unhappy with the contest. More than half do not want either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum to drop out.
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